Ryanair is planning a significant expansion across the Baltic states, aiming to fill the gap left by airBaltic’s fleet reduction and route cuts. The Irish low-cost carrier has proposed a US$1.6 billion investment over five years, which could double its traffic in the region to 11 million annual seats.
This move comes as airBaltic, the Latvian airline, prepares to downsize its Airbus A220-300 fleet by one-third, from 54 to 36 aircraft by 2026. The airline is focusing more on its main hub in Riga, with its summer 2027 network significantly smaller than in 2026, especially from Tallinn and Vilnius.
Ryanair’s Baltic Expansion Plan
Ryanair’s proposal includes increasing its based fleet in the Baltic region to 16 aircraft, supporting 11 million annual seats and creating thousands of additional jobs. They link this growth to lower airport charges and aviation taxes, urging Baltic governments to make the area more attractive for private airline investment.
The carrier is already boosting capacity in Riga this winter, basing two aircraft and operating 16 routes, adding around 40,000 seats, a 6% increase. Extra frequencies are being added on 10 routes, including popular destinations like Barcelona and Milan Bergamo.
airBaltic’s Retrenchment and Ryanair’s Strategy
While Ryanair expands, airBaltic is cutting back. The Latvian airline’s network in Tallinn will shrink from 24 to 13 destinations, and Vilnius from 14 to 8. Across Riga, Tallinn, and Vilnius, the number of nonstop routes will drop from 112 to 78.
Ryanair’s strategy varies across the Baltics. They are reducing winter capacity in Estonia and Lithuania by around 25% due to higher airport charges, while Latvia benefits from additional seats after Riga Airport’s growth incentive scheme. Ryanair criticizes Tallinn and Vilnius airports for increasing charges, leading to capacity shifts to countries like Poland, Slovakia, Italy, and Sweden.
As airBaltic reduces its operations, Ryanair is positioned to capture the remaining traffic, particularly in Tallinn and Vilnius, where airBaltic’s cuts are more pronounced. The Irish carrier has criticized airBaltic, labeling it a “zombie airline” and questioning government financial support. This competitive dynamic could reshape air connectivity in the Baltic region, with airBaltic concentrating on Riga and Ryanair seeking a larger low-fare presence across all three countries.